Truck Accident

Winter is no joke out here...

It can go from bright and sunny, to barely visible roads due to blowing snow and right back. Here is a wreck I came across not too long after it happened. I originally thought this trailer was filled with microwaves, but haha, turns out it was salad xD

I have no idea how this happened or why that tractor was on the other side of the interstate like that..
On a side note, I downloaded a free charting program called Ninja Trader which gives me access to commodity prices. This is significant to me because I am in love with the Orange Juice market. I don't know why but I just love it. With that said, I will be taking long term trades in that market and probably a few others. I'll upload charts of all those trades when I put them on.

On a final note, it being Sunday I had the robot restarted. We'll see how that turns out throughout the week!

Why are people so Goddamn stupid?!?!

Ok, so as you know I'm a truck driver. I got to my drop this morning and this is what it looks like from Google.



My appointment was 9:00 a.m. and I got there early as any professional would. The broker called me this morning and woke me up asking me "Hey in case you get lost, do you have their phone number?"

To which I said "I Google map every location I'm going to so I can see all the details I need to." and we ended our conversation.

Now, as I arrived to this place there was no shoulder and a locked gate as you can see by the image. Wanting to be as safe as I can be, I pulled over the short curb a little and parked in the lot as much off the road as possible and turned my hazards on. As I was walking up to the building I noticed a baby blue truck pulling a trailer exiting the other side where the gate was open. He turned left to approach the street I was parked on. As he approached the intersection he pulled over, got out and started walking to my truck. I called to him and he instantly began to give me an attitude.

He said something like "You ran over my curb, drivers do that all the time and they aren't supposed to! See how that section of the curb is lowered over there? That's from drivers pulling over it all the time."

I said "You should put up a sign that says that." which of course I got no response for.

I began to tell him that I did that for safety. That I'd rather be halfway off the road rather than block the full lane. Then he said "The broker was supposed to give you directions this morning for how to get here. I just spoke to him this morning and asked him if he gave you directions and he said he called you and you told him you knew exactly how to get here."

And to that I said "That is not a yes or a no, people need to start learning how to answer yes or no questions with a yes or a no".

He then proceeded to tell me "Well, you can't make this corner so don't even try. There's a line in the ground that keeps breaking because drivers keep running over it, so you'll have to go down the road, turn around and make a left down this road instead."

So, that's what I did. And as I pulled into the open gate, the locked gate was now open as well so I could pull up through it giving me room to back into the dock in the center of the building. Now, there was a gold pickup truck right next to the dock. Any driver with a brain is always looking to avoid costly accidents and make things as safe and easy as possible. I got out, pointed to the truck and said "Can that truck be moved?" and the guy said with the same combative attitude "That truck has been right where it is for the last 30 loads, all the drivers have backed in with it there." And I said "I prefer to work smarter not harder, there was no harm in asking." as I walked back to the truck.

Anyways, I backed the truck up near the dock and got out to break the seal and open the doors. There were two rail road ties parallel to the dock that he pulled out parallel to the trailer so that the tires could roll up onto them. This would allow the floor of the trailer to match the height of the dock.

As I looked at how long the rail road ties were and how for forward my trailer axles were, I told him it didn't look like the ties were going to be long enough, implying that he move them further away from the dock.  Well guess what? Rather than just do that, he said "Go ahead and pull back and we'll see."

So, as I pulled back to the dock, as I suspected there wasn't enough room. I then told him that I could slide my axles further back a little instead of him having to move the ties further forward. I did so and was shortly backed up correctly to the dock.

He then proceeded to say something like "I normally don't have to use these rail road ties, but they seem to be making trailers lower and lower. Next time I get a truck so low I'll have to measure the distance from the dock to the end of the rail road tie so that when the truck backs up they have one axle on and one axle off."

And me, being one who likes to streamline things and make them more easy and efficient said to him "Really all you would have to do is cut the ties and have every driver slide their axles to the back like I have. That way you wouldn't have to measure some distance every time and have the driver slide to meet that distance and have all the adjusting. It would save a lot of time and effort."

And him not knowing about my industry came back with "But there might be some trailers that are a different distance from the tire to the back of the trailer."

And I said "Every trailer that has a sliding tandem axle will slide back to the end of the trailer, and if the axles don't slide, they are already at the back of the trailer. If you just cut the tie to a certain length that will accommodate any slight variances between manufacturers if there are any."

I looked up and he was gone. Yep, he was fed up with my logic and walked away without saying a word before I had even finished.

So let's recap how this person is creating their own misery:

#1. This person has repeatedly had drivers roll over his curb to park. How do you solve an issue like this? Very easily and cheaply. You put up a sign right along the curb that says "Do not drive over this curb." or "Truck entrance on other side, no parking!" You could also put a series of short poles into the ground right along the curb to discourage driving over it. As long as a driver stands to do damage to their vehicle by hitting them, unless they are totally stupid they will avoid driving over the curb.

#2. If the brokers job is to communicate your specific directions to the driver about how to get there and what to avoid, you do not ask the broker if they relayed that message, as if it were their choice to do so. You TELL the broker specifically to relay that information and WHY it is so important to you.

People who whine about their problems while having the power to fix them get zero sympathy from me. Especially if I attempt to tell them how they can correct their problems and they resist simple solutions. Fuck those idiots.

Black Friday

Leaving town now. Hope you all had a great holiday!

at this point I find myself quite uncertain about the market's direction, I feel like in the overall scheme of things the dollar will be slowly turning around. probably going to fight for stability for a month or two who knows. my reason for stating this is basically just to tell you what I see on the chart, but it holds no real predictive value as anything can happen at any time.

Happy thanksgiving

Stayed out of the market today. I was going to place the robot at the start of the new trading day last night, which would have given me a great position right now but I decided not to.

It does look like the downtrend is being continued for the mean time as the trend line is being respected still.

I'm tired as Hell and going to get some sleep. Enjoy your day everyone!






By the way, these are pictures of the night sky I took when I stopped Tuesday night, and then the next morning :) I only had 23 seconds available to drive (out of 11hrs) when I made it to a rest area that turned out to be abandoned... So I had to back into it and hope no one was going to give me shit for it. There are also a few pics of my journey home from that day. enjo!

Wednesday morning update

I put my take profit at the second area of resistance yesterday because it was a am area that price would likely turn around at.

Just this morning before waking up, the market hit the target for a profit of 122 pips.

Thursday is thanksgiving and probably not a good day to be in the market due to lower volumes possibly making it non directional and choppy, but if I'm home and in front of the charts I'll probably give the Martingale risk profile a go and double my risk with each loss.

As you can see in the following charts, resistance became support. This trade was a text book outcome and the markets are moving very nicely lately.

Tuesday morning update

overnight it looks like that area of resistance was met 3 times and finally surpassed. how do I actually been able to take off a portion of the trade I would have taken off enough to cover myself and make it a risk free trade. unfortunately I don't seem to be able to do that from my phone. the market looks like it is gearing up to hit the next target possibly later today or tomorrow morning. but that's just my guess








took forever to get loaded this morning so its going to be a late night of driving for me tonight. hoping to get back into town for Thanksgiving off.

Late night

As I lay in bed just now thinking about my life and where I've been, I felt my body pulling away from me. Like I was shrinking inside of it. A feeling I haven't felt in such a long time and it reminded me that I need to detach more often than I have been. It brought to light a sensation in the back of my mind for awhile now; that I don't like who I've become. A surprise somehow at how it happened.

I don't even know why that is. My whole life has been about knowing why, and yet here I am feeling out of place about pretty much everything I am and have been for awhile now. Not understanding it, and feeling unable to find the answer even though I rest on a deeper thing that I doubt will ever move.

Maybe it's because I feel so alone. I miss the closeness of my past with people. I am happy for them and sad for me. I used to be so care free, and now I'm just a result it seems, of people that I care about leaving my life to varying degrees.

I've always wanted more than people could give and I guess that's nobody's fault. I've always wanted what I gave out to be given back to me.

Whatever it is, I've noticed that being out here alone is destroying the person I fought so hard to become, or more accurately, to undo.

I am out of balance with my need of a flourishing companion filled life, when that's really all I've ever felt good about as a person. Connection. And now it seems like I'm constantly seeing others have what I don't when it comes to that.

Time is all I have, and it feels so wasted the way it is spent. This last leg of my journey to be home and follow my heart is so draining and so difficult. And when it's over, that's when another stage of challenge will begin. But I have to try, because some things you just have to know the answers to.

And I know I will miss this too... because I am insatiable. It's the curse I was born with.

You against the World...

You know what I am tired of hearing?

In pretty much any documentary, video or article about trading, someone always says that a trader is "pitting themselves against the very best in the world".

Boy, that sounds really challenging doesn't it? It sounds fucking epic, like the lone Frodo and his journey to destroy the ring... But the reality is, for pretty much everyone, that statement is total bullshit. You are not against the best in the world... You are not even against the worst in the world... you are only against your own character. You are only trading against your own preparation, or lack thereof.

It wouldn't matter if Albert Einstein were on the other end of your trade, because trading is about risk management and probabilities over a long period of time. If you enter a trade and it moves against you, it doesn't matter why it moved against you at all. The only thing there is to trade, is price. Sure, there are giant banks that can place trades that move the market, but that still has nothing to do at all with the challenge you face internally and whether or not you have a plan to follow with a long term edge. Price is price is price, and you must take full responsibility for your actions as a trader.

Are there really smart people out there who also happen have the power to manipulate the markets in their favor? Yes. Does that mean you are "Pitted against them"? No. If they move the market against you, then your risk management will protect you and make you profitable in the long run. If they move the market in your favor, then your risk management will tell you when to exit your trade at a profit. And you will be profitable in the long run.

There are no enemies in the market. Period. No one is out to get you, and even if they feel like they are out to get you, they can't because you are alone. The anthropomorphizing of the market into this evil genius monster out to get you is just bullshit. You alone decide when to enter, and you alone decide when to exit. And no one is responsible for your success or failure but you. Just because traders like to talk about taking the "Dumb money" out of the accounts of other traders when we take profits doesn't mean there is any real validity to it. We are all going to win some and lose some. The only real difference is that the "Dumb money" has no plan and no risk management in place to survive a losing streak, sometimes not even their first trade. That is what makes it dumb money to begin with, not because we are taking profits.

Think of it this way; Casinos have a long term edge. They deal strictly with quantifiable risk models and know exactly how much of an edge each of their games has over the long run. They can tolerate handing out jackpots because they know it is literally the cost of doing business. If no one ever won a jackpot at their casino, [Trading] volume would dry up and they would be out of business. When someone wins a jackpot, it's the best advertising event for them, because the allure of winning will attract other patrons. In the casino where the odds are fixed and predetermined, does it matter who sits down at the table? Does it really matter who owns the casino or who is dealing? No, because the numbers are the numbers. It's you versus the numbers, not the monsters or the geniuses or the clichés.

However, as easy as it might seem to make a profit as a Casino because of the long term edge, it is still very important to assess risk. Lets take a simple game of roulette for example. One type of bet you can place on the board is a simple black or red bet. The wheel itself has 36 alternating red and black number slots and 1 extra green zero. If you were to consistently bet that the ball will land in a black number slot your odds of success are  48.65%. That's an almost 50% chance of winning with each spin of the wheel.

One who had the capital to trade a Martingale risk profile, (Where each loss that is incurred causes the player double their risk) would eventually see the ball land in a black number slot on the wheel. If your pockets are big enough, you will never lose at this game. The problem is, the casinos know this and can mitigate this risk by instituting one or both of the following: A minimum bet size that is pretty large, requiring ridiculous capital to constantly double the bet size, and a Maximum bet size, which is far more protective. The player could no longer double his risk at a certain point.

Risk assessment, and management are the key things to surviving and thriving. The beautiful news is that you can be the casino when it comes to trading, but it starts with thinking long term. You can determine the maximum bet size and limit your drawdown in any one particular game. You can even lower the bet size when the odds are not in your favor or close your table for the time being altogether. You don't have to payout a giant jackpot to attract participants to stay in business either, there are and will continue to be plenty of poorly managed home based casinos that can't help but do it.

Sunday / Monday update

Freaking tired right now...

Here is a picture of the moon I just took from the top of my trailer. This is probably the best shot I have taken of the moon yet. Be sure to click on it to see it at full size and download it if you want!

Long day, yada yada. Here is where the market is at today:







I drew two green lines as areas I expect to see some resistance at. The first area has pretty much been hit, so we'll see how it looks later on.

I'm not in the greatest mood and I have to get up @ 1am to deliver this load. Time for bed I guess.

Winter is coming..

Fuck it's already here!

I am exhausted today and really just want to relax, however I took some pictures today because I wanted to show you a time-line of my day. Wyoming I-80 down through Denver via I-25. Pardon me, as some of the shots are blurrier because I didn't have my auto focus on.

The robot has been restarted tonight and I will send you an update on it probably tomorrow. Last I looked it had entered a trade and was up about 3 bucks.

Rambling

I came here to write something and it's all just mush now...

I really need to just start speaking into my damn phone when these thoughts come into my mind. It really is annoying to feel these things and by the end of the night have them be so far gone.

I don't feel there is a central theme for what I would come to express to you right now even though I would like to have one... even though a central theme is always lingering about, unspoken.

Lately I have had a whirlwind of thoughts inside my head. That does tend to happen a lot, but usually it doesn't bother me like it has.

The idea that come July of next year I am going to start trading full-time has been on my mind a lot.

Wondering what the hell I am going to do. Not only trading wise, but with the rest of my life. I have so many passions and interests I am not sure how I will handle them all, or if I will even be successful at trading to begin with. I really want to work on my flexibility. Random I know, but I want to have that back. I feel so unhealthy without it. I also want to for whatever reason develop a really awesome set of abs, the kind on the muscle magazine guys. thinking about those things gets me worried, but at the same time I am pretty sure that when it all comes down to it I will be alright. I'll find a way not to slip into mediocrity like I fear.

Part of that fear comes from knowing that I slipped into it before... I was an unemployed loser for 4 years and the effects of that are still a trauma I deal with. And no, I am not calling anyone unemployed a loser, just myself. It was a mix between me being lazy and scared.

I have never ever felt like I was a person that could handle a normal job. I don't consider it a weakness really anymore, but just an awareness of who I am. I have always really disliked being couped up in an office with all these rules... It has never felt right and I have always resisted it.

As solitary as trucking is, it is the perfect job for me and truly the only drawback that pains me so much is the loneliness. Other than that, I am really free to most of the time make my own hours and fuck off as much as I want. And make no mistake about it, as much fucking off as I do, it actually helps me be as productive as I am, because driving with nothing to focus on but driving can make you tired as hell fast.

On a completely separate tangent, I've noticed lately in my life a serious lack of my ability to form thoughts and express them with the grace that I used to be able to.

I used to be really able to hold my own in an argument or a debate, and usually be eloquent enough and focused enough to dominate it. Not in an asshole way, but a masterful way. What I have observed lately, is that I have seemed to slip into a place where I am off entirely anymore with most things to the point where although I might feel a tiny urge to make a point... I just don't anymore. And due to the lack of engagement with my own thoughts on certain levels, I have lost finesse in doing so when I actually do engage.  I used to be very good at transposing everything into a metaphor to specifically suit the persons frame of mind I was talking to. Now, I generally got nothing.

You remember back in the earlier posts how I mentioned the porn trained brain and how that kept me from being able to comprehend reading words on a food menu because I had become so adapted to recognizing and scanning images? I think I am experiencing a similar thing take place in my reasoning and expressive abilities. Not because of Porn, but because of my voluntary withdrawal from most cares of life.

I think it might be termed "Fatalistic", but I have some to just see everything. EVERYTHING as pure illusion and there is a part, or even whole maybe, that just can't invest anymore in pretty much any point of view enough to focus on its nuances anymore. Now, I've long held the perspective that everything is illusion, but only recently become so dispassionate about taking part in it anymore on most occasions.

And it's spilling over into this blog. At once I feel this compelling feeling to share my knowledge to you, and in the same instance I realize I don't have the energy... I think this is a big deal to me because I have always done really well at the things I do, and this lack of giving a shit is making it difficult to do well at this blog, or at having invested stances in most things in my life.

It all feels so pointless at times. And as negative as that might sound I want to clarify that I don't really feel that it is negative, but that it is just an observation I am making.

I truly feel that things are pointless on their own and it's up to us to give them meaning. And as much as I imagined this blog having meaning for myself and others, I feel that perhaps it doesn't have enough for me to focus the way I would have in the past. My ideas for posts are awesome in comparison to what I have actually manifested so far, but really by the time I get here plus realize no one is even reading this it just zaps the desire to put in 100%.  Add to that I just had a long day and why would I want to spend several hours producing a class A product that no one is going to acknowledge? Doesn't make me feel so bad when I think of it that way.

I mean... who ever the hell is reading this  is probably reading it the same way I read many things I enjoy reading. I take it in, and I leave without saying a word most of the time.

As a consumer the experience is one thing, and as a producer, another. Consumers far outweigh the producers.

I guess part of me hoped to be having an interaction through this medium, because what I am doing here is important to me. And as humans, interacting with other humans is where so much value and purpose stems from in life. It just feels like a waste to be sharing shit I already know, because I could just keep it to  myself.

But I have to acknowledge the reality of things. I am basically talking to myself with this thing.

The responsibility of this blog, and I think all responsibilities in my life are double edged. I want them, but I don't want to feel obligated to them. Deep down if I am simply honest with myself, I feel that way about pretty much everything in my life. I just use things when I want them and when I don't I kinda want to forget about them. I truly wish I had a different way of being, but if that never changes I am working on accepting that fact about myself.

To get back to the previous thread, (if I am paying attention) all the freedom I enjoy as a truck driver is basically going to be there when I trade from home, but I am under no illusion that I will be able to do whatever I want whenever I want.

I think I spoke about this in an earlier post, but I think a lot of people want to get into trading because they think they can have all this free time and do whatever they want as a trader. Well, in my experience that's not so much the case. Yes, there are robots that you can set and forget I imagine, but if you are doing everything yourself you have got to be there when the market needs you. There are lots of times that you shouldn't be trading at all, and when the market lines up for an opportunity you have to be present and ready to seize the moment. That might be 2 a.m. And you have to find the discipline to get up and do what must be done. I think I have that, I'm just battling the things in my past and the ways in which I didn't have that. I am glad to say that trading was never something I felt reluctance to do like it was a bummer job. Yes, I woke up early as hell sometimes and some days I really didn't want to engage the markets when I knew I should, but it was never like dreading a 42 mile drive at 5 a.m. just to avoid traffic, to a job I despised.

I know one thing for sure. I think I would personally rather be a trader where every decision of my business is managed in the way I see fit, than be a part of someone else's business where I see so many problems I have no authority or influence to correct.

I keep feeling like there is so much more I want to say, but that I am speaking into an abyss and wasting my time. There is no fun in a monologue that is structured to be a dialogue.

Anyways, I'm going to go play video games now... or actually probably sleep if I know what's good for me. If you are reading this and enjoying it, I am thankful. Don't be afraid to leave an anonymous comment below.

-Francisco

Friday close

The market did end up closing way down, but I'm glad I didn't stick around for it, it to forever.

Recap of last week and this morning

The last 10 days I was out of town you will recall I let the robot run and I just kept an open profit target because I wanted to see how the robot handled. You've already seen the results of that and I closed the trade.

In the following charts, I go back and take a look at the same placement of the robots entry levels, but this time with a 1 to 1 profit target.

With this risk to reward ratio and an obvious 50% accuracy rate built into the model, even though it was +6 over this data set, in the long run it should equal out to break even.

Yesterday morning when I said I thought there was going to be a lot of chop and a lot of losses I was correct. I also said I intended to keep the risk low, but since I was home for a little bit I decided to follow a martingale risk profile. Unfortunately I had to leave in the middle of it so I couldn't manage it properly. Here is a chart of the price action and the profit and and loss.

Last night before bed I reset the robot and woke up this morning in profit on the first trade. Being that it's Friday and we already had a great move early and there is no news coming out that I think could move the market, I decided to close the trade and shut the robot down until Sunday evening. Here is this mornings trade and a Daily chart showing a continuation of the overall down trend.