Friday, October 6, 2017

October 5th update

It's really kinda crazy that so much time has passed! Also kinda crazy I've been so busy that each time I come here, I have so little time I just burst out the details.


  • I opened up a 10k account with Interactive brokers and I love the commissions and shorts available, but the real time data feed costs some money and I don't feel like paying it right now.
  • I started shorting long term with very small positions just to see how that worked, as I was working days and could not be there to short any size and give my positions the attention that size would need/deserve. It worked pretty good, but I took a 1.8% loss on $OPNT and that pretty much scared me out of that for now. I know 1.8% isn't much, but it caused me to rethink what I was doing for a few reasons. The reality is, I was profitable at one point in the trade as I was short from $19.80 and it dipped down to $15ish.

  • My wife, Stacey lost her job and is now diving into trading full force. She is doing really well with her learning curve and it's been freaking unbelievable to be trading with the love of my life. We make watchlists and watch video lessons and trading materials together. We both try to trade the open together, though it has been tough to do it sharing *E-trade charts on one account. To solve this I think we are going to open up multiple accounts at other brokers, namely Schwab and TDAmeritrade. Stacey is still paper trading at this point, but she seems to treat it as real money at the moment, which is great.
  • We actually got married in July and just recently took our honeymoon cruise to Alaska! I'll have to post some pics at some point. 
  • Bitcoin has been soaring and hit nearly $5k, so that's cool. My etherium and Litecoin have all done well also. Too bad I didn't put $10k into THOSE as we would have made 400% on them at one point.
  • I am now working nights! I feared it big time because I wasn't sure I'd be able to pay the bills, and then Stacey got laid off, but I have been making basically the same hours and Stacey is supplementing our income a little by selling things on KSL that we paid very little for or got for free.
  • I have been struggling mentally because of one key reason, and a podcast from millionaire trader Matt Owens (Triforce Trader) helped me put it in words yesterday. The reality is, aside from being tired due to coming home very early in the morning and having to get up very soon afterwards, I am tired because I have been unmotivated. My mental perspective has been extremely challenging because I have a strong desire to know certain statistics about the way these stocks move. Here's what I want to know:

  1. What % of dip buys at visual support actually hold given the catalyst? There are a multitude of other details that are inside that question as well, such as; are areas of support more likely to hold if they have been tested before? how quickly did price come down to that support and was it due to any knowable news?
  2. I also want to know the same type of statistics about Breakouts. 
The point is that without the numbers, I know I am just stabbing in the dark. Even if the odds are in my favor, I want to know how much they are in my favor. I want a way to quantify the setup based on backtesting, and the truth is that to find that out would take forever. And that is really kinda crushing.

Yes, I have paper trade stats of a lot of trades that show I am profitable about 65% of the time or so, but I would have to go back and spend a ton of time searching for the entries and exits to see how much I let it move against me in those situations. This is the same backtesting problem all over again, which really sucked, but at least this time I have a catalyst driven instrument to test. 

One GIANT drawback besides not being able to test with robots, is that I am not even testing a long history of one instrument, it's hundreds or thousands of individual stocks! 

Anyway, I need to head into work now. Later!

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