Shitty dreams and a Trading Day

For the last few years I have regularly had strange and very negative dreams almost every night. As a younger person I would have called them nightmares, but somehow I am usually just able to live in the dream and be a part of it as if it were normal and not scary or anything, even though it feels 100% real. Last night I had a significantly difficult dream. I dreamed that it was night out and I was in a strange country walking in the dark with a flashlight towards a gated off airstrip runway. As I approached the gate, several two headed animals approached me, like tigers and hyenas. Their heads weren't side by side like most two headed creatures, but rather stacked on top of each other. I was afraid of them, but they just approached and sniffed me and let me be. I entered the gate to see a few black men dressed in green military uniforms greeting me, as if we were acquainted already and I had been there several times. They opened a door and we began to walk into a tunnel. It was a cramped tunnel with no lights and a muddy dirt floor, as if it had been flooded or raining recently. I was very uneasy emotionally as I was walking down the corridor trying to avoid puddles that had formed in all the deep muddy footprints. As I reached the end of the Tunnel there was a little cupboard or closet type space and I opened the door to find two children inside wearing nothing but diapers. I realized that one of them was my son and he was blind. He was in the dark, and he went to lay back down after I opened the door and shined the light on him. He looked just as he did the last time I saw him, a little blonde-haired, blue-eye toddler.... I felt so bad to watch him lay his body down on the cold cement inside that little closet in the pure cold darkness.... He just laid back down as if that was all he wanted to do, as if it was all he ever did...

No one was there to take care of him. He was abandoned... I had with me a few small pillows and I spoke to him "This is how I like to sleep" and I showed him that I like to sleep with a pillow between my legs. He didn't respond and I had to once again realize he was blind, so I touched his body and positioned the pillow between his legs and put another one in front of him to hug... It was devastating. And then I woke up and wanted to cry. I've done some pretty horrible things in my life, and as much as I try to forgive myself for them and realize that I am human, I obviously have not forgiven myself.

There are few things that hurt worse than having a dream in which your son is blind and abandoned in a freezing cold concrete floored closet. Just watching his tiny bare chest touch the floor sent chills through my body and instantly reminded me of the time I was in jail. They keep it so cold there, and no one cares about you at all... period. They live a totally separate reality on the other side of that cell door. You may as well not even exist. And that's how I interpreted the cold silent moment with my son... I felt his helplessness... but what was even worse, I watched his innocence shroud him in not being able to understand anything about what was going on, and only knowing and accepting it as reality.

I feel torn up inside, even right now, imagining that situation and that I am the cause of it. If I had any sense at all, I would have picked him up and taken him out of there... but for some reason, as in all of these terrible dreams I just follow the script because that's what's laid before my eyes... I wish in that dream and all others like it that I wasn't just a human on rails following a locked in destiny of my morbid unforgiven mind. I should have been the hero that rescued that boy instead of assisting him in his imprisonment. I am so mad at myself, and I try to tell myself it was just a dream... this one hit so close to my heart. I shared so much love with that boy, and I went from being #1 in his life to not existing at all... I have my reasons, and they stand firm, but there is a price to pay for every choice made. My choice was to stay completely out of his life knowing he would be well taken care of, rather than being someone he loved so much that only had the opportunity to be in his life a few times a year, if that. I'd rather him forget about me completely. I'd rather have these horrible dreams, if I can wake up knowing it's just me guilt tripping myself and not him agonizing over me in real life. At this point I've been gone for over 5 years, and that is how long I've been beating myself up about a decision that was supposed to be best for him. No amount of money, or personal success will ever take the burden of that decision off my shoulders, as well as other decisions I've made in my life. I hate that these truth's attack when I am supposed to be resting. I need rest. My soul needs rest, and I don't know how to find it.

Skip a head several hours later and many attempts to sleep that were unsuccessful...

Here are some trades I am up in at the moment in the stock market and my trading EURUSD Rate decision trading day.

I would really love to have the balls to trade this awesome action, but I don't have those balls AND I have a dentist appointment for a crown consultation soon and I don't want to get stuck here at the computer.

Stats for My Real World Trading

If anyone is interesting in watching the real world performance of my Mouse Trap trading robot and my real money discretionary trading, I have two small live accounts of $1,000 each.

I figured I might as well get started and see if that robot can catch all the moves it's supposed to before I go to any larger amounts. Also, trading for fake pennies everyday, although is good for instilling habits, I'd rather make real pennies for my time.



If I can make a steady consistent gain of 5%-10% with little drawdown I may increase my account size on the discretionary trading.

First Day of My New Life

I did it. Yesterday I handed in the keys to an impeccably clean truck to a very happy set of mechanics. I believe in returning things in the best condition possible and I got that truck brand new.

I managed to make it out of there with the goodbyes to the people I cared enough about to tell, and avoid the conversation with the ones I don't. Not that they are bad people, but I didn't want to go through the long explanation with everyone. It's none of their business why I am leaving or what I intend to do.

So you know how the owner was supposed to call me after getting my goodbye email? Still never called, yet he took the time to mention my departure and ambitions to the office. On my way home yesterday, our safety guy called me. I called him back and asked me what my plans where because the owner wanted to confirm it... Well hell. Why not call me yourself owner??

Anyways I told him I was going on vacation and taking at least a year off and that I would likely see him again in a year. He then said "Well, I hope you get rich" in a mocking sort of passive aggressive tone.  It actually angered me a little after I got off the phone with him, but I said "I'm not planning on getting rich in a year, it doesn't work like that."

You see, it pissed me off to hear him say that because the place he was coming from was a mocking place of doubt. I understand it, as most fail at trading, but I never mentioned getting rich in my goodbye email. The email was about me pursuing ambitions I cannot undertake as a truck driver. The fact that he said what he said, and the way he said it hints to me that when the owner told him what I was leaving to do, they both more than likely knocked me in that moment. Well... I guess I was right about certain people. I have a point to make, and going back in a year will not mean I am a failure if I have to go.

Today is the first day of my new life. It is very difficult and I had an anxiety moment yesterday I have not had in 5 years, but this one was worse even though I am in a stable financial position this time. It is all on me. Developing the plan, testing the plan, reworking the plan, testing it live in demo, testing it live in a small account and if I am doing it all right... Going live on a larger account.

I have over $26,000 cash at the moment and I still have my last checks to get. I do not intend to lose that money trading blindly. I have worked my ass off for it. Had I not bought My new bike and gotten my Dental Implants paid for in advance I'd have about $33,000 to go with. I am proud of myself. But now it is time to be proud only because of other actions taking place. It is time for the talking to turn in to doing.

And at this moment, I have a house to clean and dishes to do. I look forward to the future, even with as scared as I am about it. One last thing I want to mention is that My phone plan was changed while I was out on the road and I didn't have data anymore, otherwise I would have reported that the robots were doing alright. I'll clarify more later but I have things to do.

How bad do you want that cheese?

I've mentioned that I need to work on turning my fear of living a mediocre life into a motivation that will never give up making my life what I want it to be.

I ran across this video just now and I wanted to share it.

Some testing results

First, here are some sweet pics of the sunset in colorado I took today. Also, accidents from yesterday in Illinois and Nebraska

Fuckin sweet I know ;P

Ok, this was a real pain in the ass to do, but I went back through each trade that was made and implemented the martingale risk profile. Here is one minor detail I came to find out. Over the two month test period from January to February of 2013 the largest string of losses was 13 in a row. There is just no way to double your position size that many times so I had to make a rule. I could only have 5 losses and then I would start my position sizing over again. At my last size I would be trading $16/pip even though with a 10k account I could technically trade for about $40/pip after a string of losses that would need that size. Here is how my position sizing went.

-$10
-$20
-$40
-$80
-$160
-$10
etc...

I did get lucky and have a few strings finally win on the last trade before the reset for a win of +$240. If that had not happened and one more loss had occured, the results would be quite different I think. I will have to save my charts and make copies of them using different data points. That will be quite intensive because that guy who I emailed about updating the robot has basically ignored me. I don't have a clue what's going on with him.

Definitely make sure you download this chart so you can zoom in and see it. this is a comparison of the 289 trades during Jan and Feb of 2013. I wasn't super accurate with my placement of the box, but my goal was to place it at the start of each new daily bar and leave it the entire length of the day.

The top chart is with original static position sizes using $1/pip and the bottom one uses the martingale position sizing as mentioned above.

The area with the largest drawdowns are obviously the string of losses. Click HERE to download an html file of all the original trades from my Metatrader platform. There is also more interesting data in the file at the top. If it doesn't work let me know, but you should just be able to open in right up in your browser.

So... Although this strategy did end up at a 9% profit after 2 months, 289 trades is too small a sample size and too narrow a range of time for me to feel comfortable enough to put any stock in this just yet. I'd love to have at least a thousand trades, or run the numbers on a different position sizing method for the same trades. If I had a robot that could do it all for me it would be so much easier but damn... I am even willing to pay the guy and he just won't respond.

I'll keep you in the loop of any other data I happen to figure out. Until then I suppose I'll be hard at work.

-Francisco

Sunday update

Hey, some things came across my mind today and I wanted to share them.

First of all, I noticed that the EUR/USD totally tanked on new years eve and at first I didn't think much of it, but then today I realized it was probably people getting out of their positions for the year. Just my guess. It would have to do with an accounting election for traders called "Mark to market". It's for anyone who qualifies really, but what constitutes a trader in the eyes of the IRS is pretty vague.

I should be more clear on what the hell I am about to say but I am not. Anyhow, there is a tax situation where it would be best to exit your position I think.

So, my other news is that it is sunday and the markets opened up and fell dramatically, only to be bought back up again. They crashed through the psychologically significant 1.2000 level. Round numbers are just important like that. Anyhow, that also coincides with major support on the weekly charts from years back. check it out.

I am curious if the trend will be reversing and if it is wise to go long at this price, even if it's just a small position. Who knows, anything can happen and I haven't looked into any fundamentals lately at all.

Lastly, I realized that I can backtest the Robot in my software. I've known that before, I mean, that's basically the highlight of the metatrader platform, but when it comes to backtesting the box I never used a predetermined take profit so it would just lose and lose and lose. Now, if I put in the 1.5 times risk profit target I can get some data. It will not be totally accurate data because the market conditions aren't live and therefore the spread won't change due to news releases and such, but I can at least try and gather something and then run the numbers implementing the martingale risk profile. I intend to spend the rest of the night going through that. Wish me luck

-Francisco

Sunday night fight

heh, I'm just trying to lure people in with a catchy post title did it work?

Anyways, I set the robot up and set the take profit for 1.5 times risk. As I mentioned before the robot doesn't have the ability to adjust risk for a martingale strategy, so I will just have to let it take the trades and figure out the results later. At least things will be more accurate this time with actual entries and exits so there will be no guessing this time.

I have no idea how this will work out, maybe it will go bust when I apply the martingale to it, maybe it will have mixed results. Either way, I am trying to gather important data and I am so happy I have this robot to do it for me. It would be practically impossible for me to manually trade this on the road. This tool really helps me out so very much!

Here is a chart of the robots setup.

It occurred to me the other day that my upcoming post called "Making it all back, the worst idea ever" is basically contradictory to the martingale approach in the first place. It kinda makes me laugh, but contradiction and paradox is life itself. Stay tuned :)

Promised update

During the last time I was out the robot lost 35 times in a row to bring a drawdown of  about 3.7%.

This dramatic string of losses came as a result of my choice to simply not take profits the entire time I was out. It was difficult, as there were plenty of chances to take a good amount of profits, but I stuck it out and the market ended up going down and reaching the profit ratio of 20:1 that I had entered into the robot long ago. I would leave it empty, but the parameters require a number.

Anyways, I said when I got the time I would go back and look at all the profits I could have accumulated during that week out so I took the time today. It was far too difficult for me to look at the charts and feel comfortable saying "I would have taken profit here and here and here." The truth is, that would be what we call "Hindsight Trading" and it's basically bullshit. So, what I decided to do instead is go over a scenario where I left the trading zone exactly where it actually was the whole time and simply take profits that where 1.5 times the risk.

The zone is 10 pips wide, so I would take profit at +15 pips. I also decided to see what it would look like with the martingale risk profile in place, meaning I double my position size (risk) for every loss.

Here is a chart of the all the action.

For you, it will be difficult to see all the entries and exits so you will simply have to trust my data. this chart is a 5min chart, but to get the entries I looked at a 1min chart and the actual account history. Now I did have to estimate some entries that the account simply did not have, but that is because IF the account were actually taking profit at 1.5 times risk, it would have entered a new position and therefor had a new loss in some instances. Below is chart I made with all the data on the right.

As you can see, the drawdown is sharp, but only dipped below the starting equity 3 times. The final result was that instead of losing 3.4% I would have gained 6.7%  $11,432.00

So, with that in mind here is what I want to do to help me acquire more data: Instead of leaving the profit ratio at 20:1 I'll simply set the robot to take profit at 1.5:1 so that I can get realistic results on my entries and exits instead of having to look at charts and guess what they would be. Since the robot does not have the ability to implement the martingale risk on it's own it will stay at one size and then i will have to add that in manually during the week.

It will be difficult to watch the account balance continue to diminish because who wouldn't want to see it go up, but I'll have to accept that while this fake account will more than likely be losing money, I am gathering important data in an effort to be profitable in real life.

Weekend update

Hey just wanted to let you know I might not post this weekend, I am going to be super busy driving... well, more like super tired.

I have to get up @3am Saturday and then 12am Sunday so my sleep schedule will be way off.

The interesting news is that the robot took a profit of $200 this morning and I woke up to watch it happen within seconds of me checking in on it. The reason the profit was taken is because I set the risk to reward ratio on the robot to 20:1.

I certainly didn't assume it would hit that level but it did. I'll update this post with a chart of it tomorrow.

I'll have a few other posts about losing money coming out pretty soon. They are basically already written I just need to proof read them before they are ready.



Take care and have a wonderful weekend!

-Francisco

Good morning

Hello again!

Lots of losses haha! A main reason for this is because I'm in the market when I really shouldn't be, at levels that don't make sense to do this at. I have to keep reminding myself that I'm doing this to see how bad it can get and if it's able to be recovered in the long run but I'm not able to control position sizing or the location of the zone while I'm gone.

At least not yet. I need to setup a remote connection and then I'll be able to.

Realistically what I should be doing is taking partial profits on most of these trades, but I can't do it for some reason. I'll have to try when I am home on my computer, but I know it will only let me exit a trade completely from my phone, not sell part of it... I have a sneaking suspicion it is because of the FIFO (First In First Out) rule implemented years back... really dumb. It's just the government treating adults like kids further and further.

Btw, I've gotten in contact with the programmer of the robot to see if we can get more features implemented into it. I'm still waiting on a response about that. Here are some charts.












On a side note oil is still taking and OJ has been as high as $1.55. I'll get charts up soon I've been quite busy with some things. Have a great day!
























































Still looking like a lot of room for the downside on this last chart.










On another note, I have told you I have become interested in Timothy Sykes and his stock trading style. He has a website called Profit.ly and I took a look yesterday where he said this he expected this stock HGSH to rise today and it totally did. I think I have a demo account with one of the brokers he recommends and by golly I should have taken a long position!

I am not sure if I want to spend $400 each on his courses, but he does have a "Tim Alerts" service for a little over $300 a year.

If you are interested in anything you can go to his website timothysykes.com and see his entry and exit prices on the stocks he is trading. It is a great way to get an idea of his trading approach. The real bread and butter though, is how he figures out which stocks are likely to move... Put all that together and you got something pretty powerful. I find it quite amazing how little of the moves he is actually taking part in.

Until next time! 

Technical reasons for my decisions

Woke up to new equity highs this morning and was like "I should definitely take this profit." It was another example of a one trade night. Here are some charts for ya.

 Here is last nights zone. I placed this at support because I felt it likely that price would be more likely to reverse. I made 58 pips

 Here is a look at the 4hr chart. taking profit in the short term makes sense because of the resistance of the trend line.

I replaced the zone at a higher resistance level, hoping once again that if price enters the zone it will rebound quickly without a lot of choppy action that would normally result in a string of losses.



COMMODITY TRADING UPDATE

OJ closed yesterday @149.65 for a profit so far of $1,050.00
Crude oil is currently trading @ 60.65 for a loss so far of $6,160.00

I feel like this might be too good to be true..

You know, shit just feels too good to be true. New Account highs from last nights resetting the box. Look at this beautiful shit.

The first two arrows are from the previous day when I tried setting up the robot. For some reason the first trade opened up in the middle of the box instead of the outside and took a 15 pip loss, while the second trade opened up and made 20 pips profit. At that point I moved the trading zone for the new trading day. If you look at the daily chart you can see that resistance was hit and price is likely to return downward now for awhile, so I just now reset the trading zone, so we'll see what happens.

Some of the thoughts that have been entering my mind are that although I love trading Forex and am in love with the idea of trading Futures, I have recently been reintroduced to a guy named Timothy Sykes. The first video of his I came across lately was this one:

I first saw Tim way back in the day on an internet show called WallStrip and then on a documentary called Wall Street Warriors where he was running a hedge fund. The Documentary followed him during a kinda shitty portion of his performance and made him look kinda dumb or immature, but I really liked him anyway. Tim Sykes is famous for turning around $12,000 into over a million dollars in 2 years, but he has now gained over 4 million dollars in profit and it is all verifiable. He has every trade documented supposedly on the internet, which is pretty cool. The problem is, I have always really dislikes Stocks for some reason so I've never really paid attention to what he does as a result of that.

The point is, I feel like this guy is totally legit and I have really been watching his videos on YouTube such as this

This shit is highly motivating and it is causing me to ask myself "Do you hate the idea of trading stocks more than you would love making a shitload of money by trading them? Are you willing to do the work and reap the rewards?" Well... I am considering it quite a bit as I am watching his videos.

I know the title of this post is "I feel like this might be too good to be true", but I am only talking about my trading results so far with my robot. I truly feel like Tim is a great guy and that he has a winning strategy. I don't feel like he is full of shit like pretty much every one else out there selling the dream. Listen to him. Listen to the tone of his voice and every word he says... He is on my side and your side.

The way I figure is, I should at least try this. One of his students as the video above mentions, has turned $1,500 into over a million dollars in 3 years. He has 4 millionaire students as of now and several of his students are making 5 and 6 figures per year. I am not new to trading and I have always felt comfortable trading the kind of price action that he trades so I think I could do well. Perhaps far better than I would do trading Forex with my robot or commodities. So... those are some of the thoughts I am mulling over.

Rambling

I came here to write something and it's all just mush now...

I really need to just start speaking into my damn phone when these thoughts come into my mind. It really is annoying to feel these things and by the end of the night have them be so far gone.

I don't feel there is a central theme for what I would come to express to you right now even though I would like to have one... even though a central theme is always lingering about, unspoken.

Lately I have had a whirlwind of thoughts inside my head. That does tend to happen a lot, but usually it doesn't bother me like it has.

The idea that come July of next year I am going to start trading full-time has been on my mind a lot.

Wondering what the hell I am going to do. Not only trading wise, but with the rest of my life. I have so many passions and interests I am not sure how I will handle them all, or if I will even be successful at trading to begin with. I really want to work on my flexibility. Random I know, but I want to have that back. I feel so unhealthy without it. I also want to for whatever reason develop a really awesome set of abs, the kind on the muscle magazine guys. thinking about those things gets me worried, but at the same time I am pretty sure that when it all comes down to it I will be alright. I'll find a way not to slip into mediocrity like I fear.

Part of that fear comes from knowing that I slipped into it before... I was an unemployed loser for 4 years and the effects of that are still a trauma I deal with. And no, I am not calling anyone unemployed a loser, just myself. It was a mix between me being lazy and scared.

I have never ever felt like I was a person that could handle a normal job. I don't consider it a weakness really anymore, but just an awareness of who I am. I have always really disliked being couped up in an office with all these rules... It has never felt right and I have always resisted it.

As solitary as trucking is, it is the perfect job for me and truly the only drawback that pains me so much is the loneliness. Other than that, I am really free to most of the time make my own hours and fuck off as much as I want. And make no mistake about it, as much fucking off as I do, it actually helps me be as productive as I am, because driving with nothing to focus on but driving can make you tired as hell fast.

On a completely separate tangent, I've noticed lately in my life a serious lack of my ability to form thoughts and express them with the grace that I used to be able to.

I used to be really able to hold my own in an argument or a debate, and usually be eloquent enough and focused enough to dominate it. Not in an asshole way, but a masterful way. What I have observed lately, is that I have seemed to slip into a place where I am off entirely anymore with most things to the point where although I might feel a tiny urge to make a point... I just don't anymore. And due to the lack of engagement with my own thoughts on certain levels, I have lost finesse in doing so when I actually do engage.  I used to be very good at transposing everything into a metaphor to specifically suit the persons frame of mind I was talking to. Now, I generally got nothing.

You remember back in the earlier posts how I mentioned the porn trained brain and how that kept me from being able to comprehend reading words on a food menu because I had become so adapted to recognizing and scanning images? I think I am experiencing a similar thing take place in my reasoning and expressive abilities. Not because of Porn, but because of my voluntary withdrawal from most cares of life.

I think it might be termed "Fatalistic", but I have some to just see everything. EVERYTHING as pure illusion and there is a part, or even whole maybe, that just can't invest anymore in pretty much any point of view enough to focus on its nuances anymore. Now, I've long held the perspective that everything is illusion, but only recently become so dispassionate about taking part in it anymore on most occasions.

And it's spilling over into this blog. At once I feel this compelling feeling to share my knowledge to you, and in the same instance I realize I don't have the energy... I think this is a big deal to me because I have always done really well at the things I do, and this lack of giving a shit is making it difficult to do well at this blog, or at having invested stances in most things in my life.

It all feels so pointless at times. And as negative as that might sound I want to clarify that I don't really feel that it is negative, but that it is just an observation I am making.

I truly feel that things are pointless on their own and it's up to us to give them meaning. And as much as I imagined this blog having meaning for myself and others, I feel that perhaps it doesn't have enough for me to focus the way I would have in the past. My ideas for posts are awesome in comparison to what I have actually manifested so far, but really by the time I get here plus realize no one is even reading this it just zaps the desire to put in 100%.  Add to that I just had a long day and why would I want to spend several hours producing a class A product that no one is going to acknowledge? Doesn't make me feel so bad when I think of it that way.

I mean... who ever the hell is reading this  is probably reading it the same way I read many things I enjoy reading. I take it in, and I leave without saying a word most of the time.

As a consumer the experience is one thing, and as a producer, another. Consumers far outweigh the producers.

I guess part of me hoped to be having an interaction through this medium, because what I am doing here is important to me. And as humans, interacting with other humans is where so much value and purpose stems from in life. It just feels like a waste to be sharing shit I already know, because I could just keep it to  myself.

But I have to acknowledge the reality of things. I am basically talking to myself with this thing.

The responsibility of this blog, and I think all responsibilities in my life are double edged. I want them, but I don't want to feel obligated to them. Deep down if I am simply honest with myself, I feel that way about pretty much everything in my life. I just use things when I want them and when I don't I kinda want to forget about them. I truly wish I had a different way of being, but if that never changes I am working on accepting that fact about myself.

To get back to the previous thread, (if I am paying attention) all the freedom I enjoy as a truck driver is basically going to be there when I trade from home, but I am under no illusion that I will be able to do whatever I want whenever I want.

I think I spoke about this in an earlier post, but I think a lot of people want to get into trading because they think they can have all this free time and do whatever they want as a trader. Well, in my experience that's not so much the case. Yes, there are robots that you can set and forget I imagine, but if you are doing everything yourself you have got to be there when the market needs you. There are lots of times that you shouldn't be trading at all, and when the market lines up for an opportunity you have to be present and ready to seize the moment. That might be 2 a.m. And you have to find the discipline to get up and do what must be done. I think I have that, I'm just battling the things in my past and the ways in which I didn't have that. I am glad to say that trading was never something I felt reluctance to do like it was a bummer job. Yes, I woke up early as hell sometimes and some days I really didn't want to engage the markets when I knew I should, but it was never like dreading a 42 mile drive at 5 a.m. just to avoid traffic, to a job I despised.

I know one thing for sure. I think I would personally rather be a trader where every decision of my business is managed in the way I see fit, than be a part of someone else's business where I see so many problems I have no authority or influence to correct.

I keep feeling like there is so much more I want to say, but that I am speaking into an abyss and wasting my time. There is no fun in a monologue that is structured to be a dialogue.

Anyways, I'm going to go play video games now... or actually probably sleep if I know what's good for me. If you are reading this and enjoying it, I am thankful. Don't be afraid to leave an anonymous comment below.

-Francisco