Ok, so my flight was interesting. At the last second the departure gate was changed from gate D11 to C7 and my seat was changed from 13E to 7E. I swear that number is intrinsically woven into my life. I'm not superstitious, so to me it's really just a number, but I've had so many directly awesome things revolve around it.
So, later on in the evening after landing and getting the rental car, there was an error in google searching the hotel address. It routed me all the way out of the city and then I realized the hotel was actually very close to the rental car place. By the time I got back the Odometer was 3,777 miles LOL.
Anyways, I found myself later that night at a local bar sitting across the table from a guy who had already had way too much to drink and we had started talking about trading. The conversation started off interestingly enough, but at one point things turned and He straight up declared that it's mandatory that I know what the black sholes model is if I'm going to be trading.
A little back story though, when I told him I was getting into algorithmic trading he said he used to be a day trader, and that He "had a good run", but is now doing some "real estate thing". I have met several people in my years who have "Been" a trader at one point or another and I could tell by the way he spoke about his "Good run" that he more than likely got his ass handed to him like most people. The way he was so bitter in the conversation about trading was just more evidence. If you are actually successful in the worlds most amazing business, you don't just walk away from it after being one of the 5% that actually make a good profit. You don't go from the fully liquid equities market, to illiquid assets like real estate. And furthermore, you don't refer to trading as "Gambling" in a bitter demeanor, that really doesn't make your former success believable. (Although yes, I do consider trading a form of gambling, that doesn't mean there aren't self controlled professional gamblers that make a comfortable living at it.)
Anyways, when I told him I had heard of the Black Sholes model before but didn't ever take the time to learn what it was, his drunk eyes turned black (like that shark in Finding Nemo) and he hunched over the table and told me (As if I'd just spit on his mother's grave) "You have to know what the Black Sholes model is if you're going to trade. Period"
And that's when the conversation really turned sour on the inside, but I could tell he was trying hard not to let it spill over to the outside. I asked him what the Black Sholes model was, because I was partly pandering to his insistence and partly deeply curious about it. All he could say was basically "It's a formula for analyzing options to arrive at a stocks true value" and I knew right then and there it didn't apply to me. Why? Because he was talking specifically about stock options, and I don't have anything to do with that. I found it hilarious that he insisted I needed to know this, yet didn't actually explain to me what it was... He tried to explain what options were to me, because he must not have believed me when I told him I knew, and yet somehow I ended up finishing his sentences ;)
I am a pretty clear speaking man, so I told him what I truly thought. I told him that I think people that don't truly grasp trading tend to think religiously about a method; like there is only one way to make money and that if you aren't doing it their way you're going to fail, or that it just doesn't work. I told him that the age old CTFC warning of "Past results are not indicative of future performance" is total bullshit, and that all we have to go by in this world is past performance to mold our expectancy around. I told him I don't give a shit about the method, over the data, and that to me data is all that matters. He even tried to tell me that trading is a "Zero-Sum" game (Meaning that for every loser there is an equal winner) and I'm pretty sure I stepped on his feelings when I corrected him that it was a "Minus-Sum" game because of slippage and commissions, to which he laughed as if that somehow doesn't make it what it is. And yet one of peoples biggest concerns is trading costs...
Anyways, after a heated discussion about trading he ended with the usual "Well I wish you the best of luck" Which is really meant as "I can't wait to hear that you failed, because if I couldn't do it, I know you can't do it!"
Well... I don't need luck. I need a winning strategy backed up by loads of viable data, and the discipline to enact that strategy with immovable belief even in the face of inevitable draw down.
I'm not for one moment claiming I'm going to make it, but hell, in the six months I have been home I've already out-traded 95% of people simply by still having almost 100% of my capital. I've done leaps and bounds better than I have in the past. I've had the discipline to not tamper with my trading robot, and I've not taken any giant losses in my discretionary account like I have in the past.
I still have room to improve and always will. I don't think I'll ever permanently get "There" because growth is a constant battle and the road is circular. Habits are constantly in the making. And if at the end of the day I can't get profitable, I'll have to come to accept that. But for now, it's still too early to call it, and too early to give up, no matter who thinks I can't make it.
How can I honestly take someone's negativity personally when I know they are part of the masses who often never hold any disciplines that require the true hard work of inner development? Of course they are going to be negative, it's the easiest thing in the world to do. Especially when the best examples they get of human triumph are from the movies instead of their own lives? And when the truths they get about trading are from the twisted media and stories of failure from a "Friend of a friend who knew a guy".
No comments:
Post a Comment